Choice and leverage remain strongest in the London area despite September's improvement in sales. In the GTA, lower annual prices support negotiation, but reduced listings and economic uncertainty make neighbourhood-level preparation important. Waterloo Region, Hamilton and Burlington should still be assessed against their latest local evidence.
ONTARIO HOME MARKET
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Original, concise market notes based on authoritative housing and economic sources. Reviewed daily and updated when meaningful information becomes available.
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The latest regional results confirm that Southern Ontario is moving at different speeds. September sales improved in London and St. Thomas, but supply still favoured buyers. GTA sales and prices softened in September, while Cornerstone's combined-market sales declined as new listings increased from August.
THE EVIDENCE
GTA sales declined 9.0% annually in September, while new listings fell 14.4% and the composite benchmark declined 4.7%. Across Cornerstone's combined markets, September sales fell 17.8% annually, new listings rose 33.5% from August and months’ supply was 4.6. In September, London and St. Thomas recorded 561 sales, 5.9 months of inventory and a 34.7% sales-to-new-listings ratio.
Reduced inventory can limit direct competition, but September's softer GTA sales and low activity across Cornerstone's markets show that buyers remain selective. Pricing and presentation should be anchored to the most recent comparable sales.
MADISON'S CONSIDERED TAKEAWAY
CREA's September national results show renewed softness in sales and benchmark prices, while CMHC's construction trends differ across our local markets. The Bank of Canada's October 28 increase to 2.5% adds a new financing consideration, but the effect on a specific mortgage depends on the lender and product terms. Neither a national average, a construction pipeline nor the policy rate alone establishes a property's value. The more useful question is how supply, recent sales, financing costs and buyer activity align for the specific neighbourhood and property type.
OFFICIAL MARKET UPDATES
The latest releases,
in context.
Last reviewed November 1, 2026
Tribunal upholds development charges for student-oriented rental phase
Guelph reported that the Ontario Land Tribunal upheld the City’s application of its 2024 Development Charges Bylaw to the second phase of purpose-built rental housing geared to students at 601 Scottsdale Drive. The City says nearly $11 million was at issue; the phase had already received a $2.4 million statutory discount for purpose-built rental units. Madison’s perspective: the decision clarifies who bears growth-related infrastructure costs for this phase. It is not a new housing approval, construction milestone or change to the project’s delivery schedule.
City of Guelph October 30 announcementBank of Canada raises its policy rate to 2.5%
The Bank of Canada increased its overnight-rate target by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first increase since July 2023. The Bank expects inflation to rise to about 3.5% by year-end and average 3% in 2027, citing persistent energy costs and the risk of broader price pressures. It also expects housing activity to remain relatively weak and said future decisions will be made one meeting at a time. Madison’s perspective: the increase adds a financing consideration for rate-sensitive borrowers, while an individual mortgage rate and payment response still depend on the lender and product terms.
Bank of Canada October 28 rate decisionMortgage arrears rise unevenly across Ontario markets
CMHC reported that Ontario’s mortgage-arrears rate reached 0.32% in the second quarter of 2026 and is expected to continue rising through mid-2027. The share of mortgages 90 or more days past due rose year over year from 0.24% to 0.33% in Toronto, 0.18% to 0.27% in London, 0.19% to 0.25% in Hamilton and 0.18% to 0.24% in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo. Madison’s perspective: arrears remain contained nationally, but the regional increases are an important affordability and household-risk indicator—not a forecast of individual default or a measure of current home values.
CMHC October 27 Residential Mortgage Industry ReportStoney Creek application proposes 249 homes
Hamilton published a complete zoning-amendment application for 1310 South Service Road in Stoney Creek. The applicant proposes two nine-storey residential buildings with 249 homes. The City identifies this as the first step in the application process, and no public meeting has been scheduled. Madison’s perspective: the application signals potential new supply in Ward 10, but it is a proposal—not an approval, construction start or confirmed delivery schedule.
City of Hamilton October 26 public noticeSeptember inflation rises to 3.1% as shelter costs increase
Statistics Canada reported national CPI inflation of 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August, led by gasoline prices. Shelter costs rose 1.8% annually and rent prices increased 2.8%; the mortgage interest cost index declined 0.2%. Madison’s perspective: these national measures provide context for household budgets, not local asking rents or an individual mortgage offer. The release is economic data—not a Bank of Canada rate decision—and does not establish the direction of the next policy change.
Statistics Canada October 19 release — September dataConsumers report elevated inflation expectations and cautious spending
The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter survey found that long-term inflation expectations rose to match elevated shorter-term expectations, while spending plans weakened from already low levels. Consumers reported improved financial health and easier access to credit, but those improvements were measured before September’s rise in bond yields; most responses were also collected before Canada–U.S. trade talks broke down on August 21. Madison’s perspective: the survey adds context on household confidence, but it is not a mortgage-rate quote, a measure of local buyer demand or a Bank of Canada rate decision.
Bank of Canada October 19 consumer surveyYork Street reopens after downtown infrastructure upgrades
London confirmed that York Street between Wellington and Colborne has reopened to vehicle traffic as its infrastructure renewal project nears completion. Work increased water, stormwater and sewer capacity, separated combined sewers, and renewed the watermain, road, sidewalks and traffic signals. Finishing work will continue this fall without a full road closure. Madison’s perspective: the milestone improves downtown access and supports future growth, but is not evidence of a change in nearby property values.
City of London October 19 reopening announcementHespeler Optimist Park’s new playground opens
Cambridge confirmed that construction is complete and the new playground at Hespeler Optimist Park is open. Features include slides, swings, climbing elements, ground-level play and a sensory tunnel with a wheelchair-accessible entry. Nearly 500 residents contributed feedback to the design. Madison’s perspective: the completed playground adds a family-oriented neighbourhood amenity; it should not be read as evidence of a change in nearby property values.
City of Cambridge October 14 opening announcementSeptember construction trends diverge across Southern Ontario
CMHC’s September six-month housing-starts trend fell 15% from August in London, rose 4% in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo and 9% in Hamilton, and was flat in Toronto. Guelph’s smaller base rose from 118 to 276. These figures are six-month moving averages of seasonally adjusted annual rates—not the number of homes started during September or completed homes. Nationally, actual September starts in centres of 10,000 or more were down 11% annually. Madison’s perspective: the differing construction pipelines reinforce the importance of local supply analysis; a start does not establish a completion date or availability for purchase.
CMHC October 16 release — September dataLondon releases its new draft zoning by-law for public review
The City of London has released a new draft zoning by-law for city-wide public review, supported by plain-language information, videos and frequently asked questions. The by-law will shape how land, buildings and development are regulated across London. Madison’s perspective: owners and prospective buyers may want to review the proposal for property-specific implications, but this is a draft for consultation—not a final zoning approval.
City of London October 15 announcementOntario leads August’s increase in multi-unit permit values
Statistics Canada’s new August building-permit release reports a $696 million monthly increase in Ontario’s multi-unit permit values, the largest provincial contribution to the national gain. Across Canada, residential permit values rose by $1.1 billion to $8.5 billion. These are seasonally adjusted construction intentions in current dollars, not housing starts or completions. Madison’s perspective: the increase is a useful signal for the development pipeline, but permits alone do not establish when homes will be built or available to buyers and renters.
Statistics Canada October 14 release — August dataSeptember sales soften as new listings increase from August
Cornerstone reported 1,171 September sales across its market areas, down 8.2% from August and 17.8% annually. New listings increased 33.5% month over month to 3,350 but remained 18.8% below September 2025. Inventory rose 4.8% from August and was 10.8% lower annually; months’ supply was 4.6, unchanged from a year earlier. Madison’s perspective: more listings alongside softer sales reinforce the need for neighbourhood-specific pricing. These are combined-market figures, not individual results for Waterloo Region or Hamilton-Burlington.
Cornerstone October 5 September Market UpdateOntario employment edges lower in September
Statistics Canada reported that Ontario employment edged down by 20,000, or 0.2%, in September, while the provincial unemployment rate was little changed at 7.0%. Employment remained 86,000, or 1.1%, above September 2025. Madison’s perspective: softer monthly employment can affect household confidence and moving decisions, but this release alone does not determine mortgage pricing or the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision.
Statistics Canada October 9 releaseHamilton approves a downtown maximum-temperature bylaw pilot
Hamilton Council approved an Adequate Temperature Bylaw pilot for downtown rental housing from June 1, 2027 to September 15, 2028. Subject to specified exemptions, landlords will be required to keep at least one habitable space in a rental unit at or below 26°C during the annual May 15–September 15 period. The City estimates approximately 15,800 rental units could be within scope. Madison’s perspective: this creates a defined cooling standard for the pilot area, but it is not yet a city-wide requirement.
City of Hamilton October 8 releaseHamilton supports remediation for the 290 Fennell redevelopment
Hamilton Council approved an ERASE Redevelopment Grant application to help address historical contamination at 290 Fennell Avenue West. The project includes a 512-bed long-term-care facility and would prepare the former psychiatric-hospital lands for future housing and community development. The proposed grant would support approximately $12 million in eligible remediation costs and is paid from a portion of new property taxes after redevelopment occurs. Madison’s perspective: the decision advances site remediation and long-term-care capacity; future housing remains an opportunity rather than a confirmed unit count or construction schedule.
City of Hamilton October 8 releaseSt. Thomas backs a 2027 permit-fee incentive for larger apartments
St. Thomas Council supported a 2027 incentive providing at least a 50% reduction in building-permit application fees for apartment buildings of five storeys or more. The City says it has achieved 15% of its target for this housing type; the incentive supports its broader 1,204-home target and approximately $2.02 million in federal Housing Accelerator Fund funding for 2028. Madison’s perspective: lower permit costs may improve project feasibility, but they do not guarantee that proposed apartments will advance to construction.
City of St. Thomas October 6 Council HighlightsWaterloo approves a 3,084-home complete community
Waterloo Council approved planning amendments for 170–200 Northfield Drive West and 570–655 Weber Street North. The mixed-use plan includes 3,084 homes, 22,239 sq. m. of employment space, commercial space and parkland. A holding provision requires sufficient water, sanitary and storm servicing capacity and protects for a potential future Catholic school site. Madison’s perspective: the approval advances a major housing and employment project, but the servicing conditions mean it should not be treated as construction-ready.
City of Waterloo October 5 council summaryBaker District library transition establishes the next development milestones
The Guelph Public Library Board approved the transition plan for the new Central Library at 1 Baker Street. The current Main Library is scheduled to close February 1, 2027, and the new library is targeted to open in April 2027. The City says construction of the Baker District residential towers could begin as early as 2027, with the public squares expected to be fully completed alongside the towers in 2030. Madison’s perspective: the plan provides clearer sequencing for this downtown redevelopment, but the residential construction date remains anticipated rather than guaranteed.
City of Guelph September 29 announcementGuelph acquires downtown library site for future housing
The City of Guelph is purchasing 100 Norfolk Street, the current main library site, to pursue future housing that will include below-market homes. The City is using $3.69 million received through Ontario’s Building Faster Fund toward the acquisition and will explore delivery options after the library moves to 1 Baker Street in 2027. Madison’s perspective: this secures a well-located downtown site for housing, but no unit count, delivery partner or construction schedule has been established.
City of Guelph September 25 announcementHamilton proposed broader mid-rise residential permissions
Hamilton’s September 18 notice set a September 29 Planning Committee public meeting for proposed zoning amendments that would extend Mid Rise Residential Zones to additional lands and make related technical changes. The notice and its participation deadline are now historical. Madison’s perspective: the source describes a proposal, not final Council approval; current property-level permissions should be confirmed against the City’s zoning records.
City of Hamilton September 18 noticeHamilton proposed additional dwelling-unit zoning changes
Hamilton’s September 18 notice set a September 29 Planning Committee public meeting for proposed urban-area zoning amendments for additional dwelling units, intended to clarify interpretation and align the by-law with the Planning Act. The notice and its participation deadline are now historical. Madison’s perspective: the source describes proposed changes, not final approval; current permissions should be confirmed against the City’s zoning records.
City of Hamilton September 18 noticeInnovation District application deferred for further assessment
Guelph reported that Council unanimously deferred a decision on the Blocks 1 and 2 planning application at its September 15 meeting. Further information is needed on compatibility between proposed housing and nearby industries, alongside policy, infrastructure and stormwater considerations. Madison’s perspective: this is a planning deferral, not approval or cancellation; future housing delivery remains subject to further assessment.
City of Guelph September 16 announcementNew grant award preserves affordable rentals on Herbert Street
Waterloo announced a $2.25 million acquisition grant to Thresholds Home and Supports for three existing Herbert Street buildings containing 17 rental apartments, including 14 affordable units. The City says affordability will be secured for 25 years. Madison’s perspective: this is preservation of existing rental housing, not an announcement of 17 newly built homes; possible additional units remain prospective.
City of Waterloo September 16 announcementWater allocations clear a permit-stage hurdle for planned homes
The City of Waterloo confirmed water allocation letters for 13 developments representing approximately 1,250 homes, alongside commercial and industrial space. Building permits can be issued once applicants satisfy the remaining development requirements. Madison’s perspective: this removes a servicing constraint for these projects, but does not establish construction or occupancy dates.
City of Waterloo announcementEconomic uncertainty weighs on GTA activity in September
TRREB reported 5,040 GTA home sales in September, down 9.0% from a year earlier, while 16,500 new listings declined 14.4%. The composite benchmark was 4.7% lower annually and the average selling price fell 5.1% to $1,006,409; both edged lower from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Madison’s perspective: lower annual prices support affordability, but softer sales show that buyers remain cautious and property-specific pricing is essential.
TRREB September Market WatchAugust benchmark prices show modest monthly movement
Cornerstone reported an August benchmark price of $628,300 in Kitchener-Waterloo, down 0.8% from July and 6.0% from a year earlier. Cambridge reached $666,400, up 0.7% month over month but 4.2% lower annually. The figures favour careful, property-specific comparison rather than assuming one direction across the region.
Cornerstone August Market UpdateHamilton and Burlington prices hold relatively steady month to month
Cornerstone reported an August benchmark price of $670,600 in Hamilton, down 0.5% from July and 5.0% from a year earlier. Burlington reached $875,700, up 0.2% month over month and 1.7% lower annually. Stable monthly movement does not remove the need for precise pricing, as annual comparisons remain softer and conditions vary by neighbourhood.
Cornerstone August Market UpdateLondon-area sales improve while buyer conditions remain
LSTAR reported 561 home sales in September, up 5.3% from September 2025 and ahead of August’s 526 sales. The average sale price rose to $611,509, while the composite benchmark edged down 0.2% from August to $552,500. With 5.9 months of inventory and a 34.7% sales-to-new-listings ratio, the region continued to show buyer-market conditions. Buyers retain meaningful choice, while sellers should distinguish a shift in the mix of sales from underlying property values.
LSTAR September Market ReleaseCMHC finds small-scale infill is gaining ground
CMHC estimates that small-scale infill—buildings with two to eight homes and accessory dwelling units—represented nearly one in 10 Canadian housing starts in 2025. In Toronto, its share rose to 6.45% from 2.13% in 2024. Madison’s perspective: zoning reform can expand missing-middle options, but financing, fees, approvals and project economics still determine what is ultimately built.
CMHC September 22 analysisCMHC expects Ontario housing activity to remain subdued through 2026
CMHC’s mid-year outlook identifies Ontario as one of Canada’s softer housing markets, with affordability challenges, slower population growth and elevated supply continuing to weigh on sales and prices. It also expects historically weak housing construction, particularly in the condominium sector. For buyers and sellers, the outlook reinforces the value of realistic pricing, careful property selection and market-specific advice rather than relying on provincial averages alone.
CMHC Housing Market OutlookSeptember home sales pull back as national prices soften
CREA reported national home sales down 2.3% from August and actual sales 7.7% below September 2025. New listings declined 1.8% month over month. The national MLS® Home Price Index fell 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually, while inventory stood at 4.9 months. CREA linked the softer activity to higher fixed mortgage rates. Madison’s perspective: confirm current financing before setting a budget, and anchor pricing to local comparable sales rather than national averages. Expectations about future Bank of Canada decisions are not announced rate changes.
CREA October 16 release — September dataCREA revises its 2026 resale housing forecast
CREA now forecasts 463,336 residential sales across Canada in 2026, a 1.4% decline from 2025. Its latest outlook anticipates a small annual price decline in Ontario, reinforcing the importance of evaluating each community, property type and price range on its own merits.
CREA Quarterly ForecastMarket information is general in nature and is not legal, financial or investment advice. Statistics and forecasts may change. Speak with the appropriate qualified professionals before making a decision.
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